Random Yet Deterministic !

Simpson's paradox : the fundamental assumption that things are absolute needs to be resolved ....things are relatively depending ...even causality ....human logic has to evolve ! Infact human thinking logic is linear and unable to incorporate Paradoxical realities of Nature....It needs not be resolved rather human thinking logic has to embrace non linearity and paradoxical relative reality rather than absolute casuality... Nature is also fundamentally Paradoxical ..Human analysis needs to broaden its logical linear thinking to remain incompatible ! Paradoxes are the Realities of Nature ! No matter how many causes discover, paradoxes would always remain in one or the other forms, being the fundamental characteristics of Nature.  What is a paradox: when things start appearing Inconsistent/self - contradictory to human logic Al linear thinking ...but that could be how Nature really is ! Things are indeed Inconsistent/ incomplete in Nature ..Human logical thinking has to evolve ! Ever...

Majority party in an electoral democracy could actually be minority, the reason being , like in Simpson's paradox it's sample dependent on how different constituents are made. Different sample choices of constituents with different set of voters could lead to different locally majority parties. Sampling is vital how constituency is created and allocated! One can manipulate the construction of constituency and its total  number  in such a way that minority party(in votes overall)can win in majoirty of constituencies and majoirty(in votes) could win only in minority of constituencies. This is possible statistically and related to Simpson's paradox how constituency based on subsampling of data is constructed ! Say the result could be different in case of 400 constituency gets changed to say 600 constituencies. It's also likely possible that a party with majority has actually overall less number of total votes than the parties not in power or opposition considering all othe...

There has to be careful when Bayes Theorwm can be applied and when not to estimate probability in Causal terms !  1st Problem  (Taken from renowned Daniel Kahneman Book Thinking Fast and Slow ) Consider the following scenario and note your intuitive answer to the question. A cab was involved in a hit-and-run accident at night. Two cab companies, the Green and the Blue, operate in the city. You are given the following data: • 85% of the cabs in the city are Green and 15% are Blue. • A witness identified the cab as Blue. The court tested the reliability of the witness under the circumstances that existed on the night of the accident and concluded that the witness correctly identified each one of the two colours 80% of the time and failed 20% of the time. What is the probability that the cab involved in the accident was Blue rather than Green? This is a standard problem of Bayesian inference. There are two items of information: a base rate and the imperfectly reliable testimo...

Unknown sample(Outsample) is also taken from known experience( insample)!  Sampling of unknown based on known experience ! Paradoxical. Can one take unknown sample from unknown experience then outsample should be anything of any period in true sense rather than specific choice based on known experience !! Paradox of Out sampling : Outsampling is actually insampling as usually done in finance world in particular ! Unknown sample is also taken from known experience ! Can one take unknown sample from unknown experience then outsample should be anything of any period in true sense rather than specific choice based on known experience !! Paradox of Out sampling : Outsampling actually insampling !  If it were truly in principle it must work on any unknown unknown sample so called outsample not only selective outsample Like if Convexity stregay works, it can possibly work in any unknown environment...unknown out sample size...this also differentiates true strategy from biased strateg...

Statistical based system e.g. regression might not be able to always deliver consistent and complete causal results even when instrumental variables included . This is because there seem to exist fundamental inconsistency/incompleteness in the statistical methods like regression etc. due to Simpson's type paradox where establishing correlations etc. between any variables based on statistical data could itself be incomplete/inconsistent! The reason also being the role of randomness all around !  So, definitely some statistical methods like your wonderful IVs and LATE could be better but I think that no statistical method would always lead to consistent /complete causal perspective because of above fundamental limitations

Yes Universe seems to me  a Quantum Universe in which classical world is just superficially created as virtual reality !  It can also be possibly proven using mathematical/logic ! That's why Quantum Entanglement etc..all culd work even for so called classical objects !  There is super geometry where the universe exists within mind and vice versa in a super geometry.hence no matter how far they appear superficially in classical world, their  distance in the quantum world could be zero leading to interconnectedness !!  And that's supreme interconnected where everything could be interconnected is linked with consciousness through which one senses the universe !! paradox of self consciousness. That's why understanding self consciousness is fundamental to understand this supreme geometry where observer nd observed bhet unified into the same one !! 

Majority party in an electoral democracy could actually be minority, the reason being , like in Simpson's paradox it's sample dependent on how different constituents are made. Different sample choices of constituents with different set of voters could lead to different locally majority parties. Sampling is vital how constituency is created and allocated!    It's also likely possible that a party with majority has actually overall less number of total votes than the parties not in power or opposition considering all other parties. That means in the existing system of democracy, soc alled majority  party with lesser number of voters in favour overall is having more number of voters against it.  I So, so-called Majority ruling  party coudl be actually minority party being overall in various scenarios. Hence mathematically and statistically, one safest way in the existing system is that for becoming truly majority , any party also needs to have global majority along...

I beleive even financial stock market is Locally Non-Real like Universe...Quantum Entanglement works even in Market ! This is because Human minds also quantum entangled way at deeper consciousness level !